Context heading into Monday, Feb 2, 2026

• Risk-off after metals/crypto flush: silver crashed about 30% on Friday (worst day since 1980), gold dropped around 9%, and bitcoin broke below $80k, trading near $76k as traders de-risked. Equity futures Sunday night: S&P -0.6%, Nasdaq -1%, Dow -0.3%, pointing to a softer open.
• AI trade wobble: reports that Nvidia's planned $100B+ investment into OpenAI has stalled add questions around the durability of the AI trade, especially for Nvidia and AI beneficiaries.
• Earnings-heavy week: more than 100 S&P 500 companies report, including Amazon, Alphabet, and Disney. Earnings growth is on track to be the strongest in four years, but strong prints have still seen post-earnings selling in some mega caps.

Key drivers this week

1. Metals/crypto unwind and risk appetite

The speed and size of the silver and crypto flush is a clear risk-off signal. The key question is whether selling stays contained to speculative corners or spills into broader tech and growth. Street read: more about leverage and excess being cleared than a macro collapse, but continued pressure would tighten financial conditions at the margin.

2. AI complex and mega-cap tech

Nvidia and the wider AI hardware/software complex remain central to the bull case. The stalled OpenAI deal adds doubt. Traders are watching hyperscalers' earnings commentary on AI infrastructure demand and capex. If the AI spend narrative stays intact, dips in AI names may be framed as a shakeout. If not, expect rotation out of high-multiple AI beneficiaries.

3. Earnings landmines versus index resilience

Aggregate earnings look strong, but the bar is high and guidance matters more than beats. Good numbers have still been sold in some mega caps. Expect index-level resilience with higher single-name volatility and dispersion, which creates opportunities but also gap risk around reports.

4. Friday's jobs report (January NFP)

Consensus is roughly 55k jobs added. A strong upside surprise would reinforce a \"higher for longer\" Fed narrative and pressure long-duration growth. A big downside miss raises a growth scare versus easier Fed expectations; the equity reaction will hinge on how yields move.

Street-style scenarios

Base case

• Cautious but not panicked tone.
• Choppy, range-bound to slightly weaker price action early in the week as the metals/crypto hangover is digested.
• Earnings and the Friday jobs print determine whether indices finish the week near the top or bottom of the range.

Bullish skew

• Metals/crypto flush seen as speculative excess being cleared.
• Big tech earnings and guidance are reassuring, with AI capex still strong.
• Jobs data prints close to consensus.
• Outcome: risk-on resumes, S&P recaptures losses, AI and growth lead a rebound; early-week dips are bought.

Bearish skew

• Speculative selling extends or spills into broader high-beta names.
• One or more mega caps miss or guide cautiously on AI/cloud.
• Jobs data is too hot (tighter Fed) or too cold (growth scare).
• Outcome: broader de-risking, rotation out of growth/AI, higher vol and more downside gaps around earnings.

Trading takeaway

The near-term edge is more in single-name and sector trades around earnings and factor rotations than in big index calls. Watch the AI complex, speculative pockets hit by the metals/crypto flush, and the reaction to mega-cap earnings and Friday's jobs report. Use this as context for trade planning rather than as advice or instructions.