Big picture for Tuesday, Feb 3, 2026

• Equities grinding higher after clearing the metals/crypto shock: The S&P 500 (US500) is holding near recent highs, with Trading Economics quoting it around 7000, up roughly 0.4% on the session and ~16% year over year. Monday saw broad gains led by AI-adjacent chipmakers and small caps, signaling that dip-buyers are still active.
• Speculative stress is contained for now: Last week’s violent flush in silver, gold, and bitcoin hasn’t cascaded into forced selling across the equity complex. Instead, flows have rotated back into quality growth and AI names, even as traders stay wary of leverage and late-positioned momentum.
• Earnings + macro still in the driver’s seat: A heavy earnings tape plus upcoming data keeps headline risk elevated. Single-name gaps (both up and down) are more attractive than broad index bets if you’re nimble and disciplined about risk.

Overnight & index context

• US500 around 7000: Trading Economics data shows the US500 index near 7003, up about 0.38% on the day and modestly positive over the past month. The index is up ~16% versus this time last year, underscoring that we’re climbing from an already elevated base.
• Global risk tone: European and Asian markets are generally stable to mildly positive, with a slight risk-on bias following the metals/crypto crash. No obvious systemic contagion yet; this still looks like a speculative pocket blowing off steam rather than a broad macro shock.
• Volatility backdrop: Index volatility is relatively subdued, but single-name and sector vol remain elevated around earnings and in anything tied to AI, semis, or speculative assets.

Today’s key catalysts

1. Earnings: single-name landmines and opportunities

Earnings season is still driving a lot of intraday action. Even without listing every ticker, the pattern matters:

• Good numbers are not a guarantee of upside: Several names have beaten on EPS and revenue but traded lower on cautious guidance, FX comments, or simply "too much good news already priced in".
• Guidance and commentary matter more than the headline beat: Pay attention to how management talks about 2026 demand, margin pressure, and AI-related capex rather than just the EPS line.
• Post-earnings drift: Moves often extend beyond the first 15 minutes. A disciplined plan for entries/exits after the open is crucial if you’re trading earnings reactions.

Day-trading angle: The cleaner edges are in:

• Names with clearly strong/weak prints versus expectations and unusual volume.
• Sympathy plays in the same sector or theme (especially AI, cloud, semis, consumer).
• Fading overextended post-earnings moves when price/action diverges from the actual news.

2. Macro data and Fed expectations

Economic data this week (jobs, inflation, and growth indicators) feeds directly into the "higher for longer" vs. "Fed can ease" debate.

• Stronger-than-expected prints: Support the idea that the economy can handle higher rates, but also risk pushing yields higher and compressing rich multiples in growth/AI names.
• Weaker-than-expected prints: Raise growth-scare risk. Equities might like lower yields initially, but persistent weakness narrows the path for earnings growth.
• Data surprise risk: Consider trimming gross exposure or reducing size heading into major releases if you’re short-term oriented. Being flat is a valid position.

3. AI complex and semis

AI-related chipmakers and infrastructure plays continue to lead on many up days, even as narratives around mega-cap AI investments evolve.

• Rotation risk: If AI/semis weaken, watch for rotation into more defensive sectors (utilities, staples, healthcare) or value cyclical names.
• Chase risk: Some AI names are extended after multi-week runs. Chasing vertical charts intraday without a clear plan is a recipe for pain.

Sector & theme watch

• AI / Semis: Still the focal point of risk-on days. Look for continuation setups in names breaking or holding above prior resistance with volume confirmation. Be aware of gap risk around any company updates or large orders.
• Speculative / high-beta tech: Many of these names were hit during the metals/crypto flush. Watch whether bounces are on strong volume and broad participation or just short-covering spikes.
• Defensives: Utilities, staples, and some healthcare names can catch flows in any risk-off wobble. They’re less exciting but matter for rotation context.
• Financials: Sensitivity to the rate path remains key. Rising yields help NIM but hurt duration-sensitive holdings; the market will react more to forward commentary than last quarter’s numbers.

Risk management notes

• Size to volatility, not conviction: If you’re trading names with elevated IV and wide intraday ranges, reduce position sizes. Strong opinions don’t offset position risk.
• Respect gaps around catalysts: Earnings, macro data, and unscheduled news can move stocks several percent instantly. If you don’t have a clear thesis for holding through, consider flattening or shaving down into the event.
• Avoid stacking correlated risk: Owning multiple AI/semis or multiple high-beta growth names is often a disguised single trade. Count exposure by theme, not just ticker.
• Have a max daily loss in mind: Define a stop for the day. If you hit it, step away. The goal is to stay in the game, not win today at all costs.

What not to chase

• Vertical moves driven by headlines you don’t fully understand: If a name is up 15–20% on a news item you haven’t read in full, entering late is usually donating liquidity.
• Illiquid names with social-media-only catalysts: Thin floats can move violently on low-volume hype and reverse just as fast.
• Attempting to "catch the exact low" in metals/crypto-linked names: These can have multiple legs down before a real base forms. It’s fine to miss the first 10–15% of a rebound if it means lower stress and better odds.

Trading takeaway

The tape has proven resilient after last week’s metals/crypto shock, with the US500 grinding higher and AI/semis leading on up days. That doesn’t remove downside risk; it just means the market still believes in the earnings and AI story for now. For day trading, the cleaner opportunities are likely in single-name reactions around earnings and in sector rotations (especially AI-related names versus defensives). Stay disciplined on size, avoid over-concentrating in one theme, and treat days with big macro data as environments where doing less—on purpose—can be a high-quality decision.